The Speed of Progress in Mobile Technology

The mobile phones of the not-so-distant future are expected to have as much functionality as an advanced laptop has today (Upton and Steel, 2006). In early 2001, one could not hold an operational 3G phone in the palm of their hands for more than 10 seconds without receiving severe burns; technology has advanced so much since that 3G phones are now as common as pagers used to be just a decade or so ago. A 2003 handset exceeded 20mm in thickness and could accommodate dual bands, a single radio and one antenna, and was capable of transferring data at speeds of 70 to 80 Kbit per second with no capacity for memory storage. In contrast, 2008 handsets will be less than 15mm thick, and within the confines of this smaller footprint will be able to accommodate up to four bands plus a variety of wireless technologies such as Bluetooth and wifi as well as three or more simultaneously operating radios, five or more antennas, transmitting at between 100 and 480 Mbit per second with several gigabytes of storage to boot… (Upton and Steel, 2006, p. 23). Following in the footsteps of Moore’s Law, Kryder’s Law, Hendy’s Law, and other guidelines that predict the speed of development of technology, advances in information technology and communications are expected to continue at an accelerated pace for the foreseeable future.